With Selection Sunday rapidly approaching, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has issued his latest Bracketology update for the 2026 men's NCAA tournament, identifying the projected No. 1 seeds and spotlighting the teams anxiously awaiting their fate on the bubble.
Top Seeds Secure Their Spots
Duke, Michigan, and Arizona solidified their positions as projected No. 1 seeds after winning their respective conference tournament matchups on Saturday. Duke captured another ACC title, while Arizona secured the Big 12 championship. Michigan advanced to the Big Ten title game, maintaining its top seed status. The Florida Gators, despite suffering a 91-74 loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament, are still projected as the final No. 1 seed. This illustrates the committee's consideration of a team's overall season performance rather than just a single tournament result, often weighing a body of work over a single late-season stumble.
The "Last Four In" Face a Nail-Biter
The tension is palpable for teams teetering on the edge of the 68-team field. Lunardi currently lists Missouri, Miami (OH), SMU, and Texas as the "last four in." Missouri, despite a recent three-game losing streak and a swift exit from the SEC tournament after falling to Kentucky, holds a 20-12 overall record that could be enough for a bid. Their path has been inconsistent, but their overall win-loss record provides a baseline argument for inclusion. Miami (OH) boasts an impressive 31-1 record, even after a loss to UMass in the MAC tournament quarterfinals. Their high-powered offense, which ranks second nationally with 90.7 points per game, might sway the committee, as offensive firepower can often translate to tournament upsets.
"First Four Out" Hope for a Miracle
Just outside the projected field, Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, and New Mexico sit as the "first four out." Oklahoma finished the year strong, reaching the SEC tournament quarterfinals before losing to Arkansas. The Sooners won six of their last seven games, but their 19-15 overall record might prove to be a significant hurdle for March Madness contention. A sub-.500 conference record or a high number of losses can be hard for the committee to overlook. Auburn, with a 17-16 record and a 3-9 slump over their final 12 games, faces an uphill battle. However, their third-toughest strength of schedule nationally, according to KenPom, offers a glimmer of hope. The committee often weighs strength of schedule heavily, understanding that a challenging slate can prepare a team for tournament play even if it leads to more losses.
Wisconsin Badgers Climb the Ranks
The Wisconsin Badgers made a notable jump in Bracketology predictions following an impressive Big Ten Tournament run. Initially seen as a No. 6 seed by most bracketologists, their 91-88 overtime victory against the Illinois Fighting Illini on Friday propelled them upward. This win, combined with other teams like the Tennessee Volunteers falling short, pushed Wisconsin to a No. 5 seed in many projections. ESPN's Joe Lunardi listed Wisconsin as a No. 5 seed on Saturday morning, ranking them as the No. 20 overall seed alongside Arkansas, St. John's, and Texas Tech. While USA Today also bumped them to a No. 5, CBS Sports still held them at a No. 6 seed. The Badgers' ability to overcome double-digit deficits, including a 15-point hole against Illinois, showcased their resilience. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell combined for 69 points in that crucial win. They now face the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, presenting another significant resume booster, though a two-seed line jump in the tournament is uncommon.
SEC Bubble Dynamics
The Southeastern Conference is projected to send 9.7 teams to the tournament, with 8.7 of those being at-large bids. Seven SEC teams are considered "locks": Florida Gators, Vanderbilt Commodores, Alabama Crimson Tide, Arkansas Razorbacks, Tennessee Volunteers, Kentucky Wildcats, and Georgia Bulldogs. Texas A&M sits firmly in the "should be in" category. After winning four of their last six games, the Aggies were blown out by Oklahoma in the SEC tournament second round. Still, five Quadrant 1 victories and a top-10 ranking among SEC teams in résumé ratings (low 40s nationally) give them a 78% at-large chance, keeping them ahead of other SEC bubble hopefuls. Missouri, however, is "sweating out Selection Sunday." Coming off a hot stretch of six wins in eight games, the Tigers lost back-to-back regular-season contests against Oklahoma and Arkansas, then fell to Kentucky in the SEC tournament. Their at-large chances dropped to 74%, and they currently rank 45th in résumé average, making their position precarious.
Teams eliminated from their conference tournaments, like Missouri, can no longer build their case and must now await the committee's final decision on Selection Sunday, which begins at 6 p.m. ET.
