Nvidia’s shares have stalled around $187 for months, sparking talk that the AI chip giant might be losing momentum. But beneath the sideways trading, big investors and analysts still see a company firing on all cylinders.
Sideways Trading Masks Strong Fundamentals
Nvidia’s stock has been stuck in a narrow range since its last earnings report, hovering close to $187 per share. That pause has some investors nervous, especially after the stock's rapid gains over the past year. Yet JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur argues that Nvidia’s core business is anything but stalled. Sur points to rising demand from hyperscale cloud providers and new product launches as signs that growth is accelerating, not fading.
“There’s little to suggest that Nvidia won’t deliver another beat-and-raise quarter,” Sur said, highlighting the company’s strong execution and growing visibility into future sales. The hype around Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra platform is a key driver. Supply chain data shows rack shipments jumped from roughly 10,000 units in the previous quarter to about 12,000 units in January, reflecting solid volume growth.
What’s more, Nvidia has started shipping higher-priced GB300 systems, which carry 20% to 30% higher average selling prices than earlier models. That’s a major revenue boost, Sur says.
He expects the company to guide for $74 billion to $75 billion in revenue next quarter, well above Wall Street’s current $65.6 billion estimate.
Demand Still Outpaces Supply
The bigger story is Nvidia’s backlog, which now tops $500 billion. That mountain of orders comes from cloud providers who say they can’t get enough AI compute power.
It’s proof that Nvidia has a near-monopoly on the AI chip market, especially for datacenter infrastructure.
That demand suggests Nvidia’s datacenter revenue will stay strong through 2027. Even so, the stock hasn’t reflected this strength — instead, it’s been stuck in a sideways pattern. Sur believes that’s because expectations have been rising so fast that the stock is just catching its breath.
“Another beat-and-raise could quickly reset the narrative,” Sur noted, implying that the stock might jump once earnings beat expectations again.
Options Traders Double Down Despite Volatility
While Nvidia’s share price moved sideways, traders have been busy in the options market. The chipmaker topped Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White’s list of most-traded options in recent weeks. More than 28 million call options and 17 million put options changed hands over two weeks, showing strong bets on the stock’s near-term moves amid tech volatility.
That volatility comes from mixed signals in the tech sector, including inflation data and shifting AI sentiment. Still, Nvidia’s options remain relatively affordable. Their Schaeffer’s Volatility Index sits at 35%, higher than only 2% of annual readings, meaning traders don’t expect wild swings — at least not yet.
The stock has found support near $170 multiple times since August. Recently, it bounced off that level again, climbing 1.4% to $183.53. That puts Nvidia on track for its third straight daily gain, with a 36.4% rise year-to-date.
China Shipments Add a New Dimension
On top of that, Nvidia plans to start shipping its H200 chips to China by February. That move could open up a huge market for the company, even as geopolitical tensions simmer. The news helped lift shares recently, adding to optimism among traders.
China’s AI development is rapidly expanding, and Nvidia’s chips are critical for training large language models and other AI applications. The ability to sell directly into China could fuel another wave of demand for Nvidia’s products.
Market Context and Outlook
The broader tech sector has seen a mixed start to 2025. This Nasdaq recently reclaimed the 23,000 level after a two-week dip, boosted by strong earnings from a handful of tech firms. Investors are watching closely for Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, which could set the tone for AI stocks.
Other companies tied to AI, like Snowflake and Salesforce, are also reporting soon, adding to the sector’s spotlight. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets like gold have gained as investors weigh tariffs and geopolitical risks, while oil prices held steady despite tensions between the U.S. And Iran.
Nvidia’s sideways stock chart might look bearish at first glance, but the fundamentals tell a different story. Strong demand, higher-priced products, and new market expansions suggest the AI giant’s momentum remains intact. The question now: will the next earnings report finally shake the stock out of its rut?
