A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released May 6 found Democrats leading Republicans by 10 points on a congressional ballot test, with more than 80% of Americans saying high gas prices are straining household budgets. The survey of 1,322 adults was conducted April 27-30 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The poll also found President Trump at 37% job approval and growing voter anger over the economy, while NPR's Up First newsletter reported that the U.S. Has paused an initiative called "Project Freedom." Six months remain until November's midterm elections, making turnout critical.

The political landscape six months before the midterm elections looks favorable to Democrats on paper, the poll shows. In a hypothetical vote held today, 10 percentage points more respondents said they would back Democratic congressional candidates than Republican ones, according to the NPR/PBS News/Marist survey released May 6.

That margin comes with a familiar caveat. Enthusiasm among likely voters can decide midterms, and the poll finds Democratic energy is real but uneven. Democrats enjoy stronger turnout intent among white voters with college degrees, while the party struggles to generate the same intensity among younger voters and many Black and Latino voters. Independent voters and several other groups essential to both parties aren't especially fired up, the reporting said.

Economy and gasoline pain drive discontent

Economic distress stands out as a central driver of the Democratic edge. More than eight in 10 adults told pollsters that high gasoline prices are putting a strain on their household budgets, and a strong majority placed blame on President Trump for rising pump costs, the survey found. The poll ties that anger at the pump to broader public discontent with the economy.

The coverage also links higher fuel prices to the war in Iran, noting the conflict as a contributing factor and saying it has helped build public opposition to U.S. Involvement.

Across demographic and regional groups, respondents said the economy isn't working for them, according to the poll.

Mastheads

President Trump’s job approval stood at 37% approve and 59% disapprove in the survey, with 51% saying they strongly disapprove. That level of strong disapproval is tied for his worst result in this polling series. The decline in approval is broad-based, showing up among voters in the South, people with household incomes under $50,000, white men and women without college degrees, millennials, parents of children under 18, rural residents, and voters in small cities and suburbs. The poll also recorded erosion among some white evangelical Christians and crossover voters who supported Trump in 2024.

Within the GOP coalition, the survey found slippage compared with earlier figures. Reporting contrasted a February 2025 baseline when Republican approval of Trump was recorded as 88% approve and 10% disapprove, to the current poll's finding of 81% approve and 18% disapprove.

That amounts to roughly a 15-point net drop in support among self-identified Republicans on that comparative measure, another report noted.

Turnout and the midterm arithmetic

NPR’s political analyst Domenico Montanaro told reporters that Trump’s low approval "can be a real albatross for Republican candidates." He added that motivating the former president’s base to show up for a midterm when he isn't on the ballot is a major challenge for GOP prospects. The reporting frames the midterm outlook as favorable to Democrats on paper but conditional on who actually turns out to vote.

That dynamic is central because the poll shows enthusiasm gaps across demographic lines. Democrats’ lead could translate into significant seat gains if their supporters show up at historic midterm rates. But the margin could narrow or vanish if younger voters and significant shares of Black and Latino voters underperform or if Republican voters overcome the turnout problem by turning out at high rates.

Pollsters surveyed 1,322 respondents April 27-30 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The NPR/PBS News/Marist collaboration provided the topline numbers and breakdowns that drive the coverage and the partisan arithmetic described above.

Separately, NPR's Up First newsletter reported that the U.S. Has paused an initiative called "Project Freedom." The items that mentioned the pause didn't explain what Project Freedom is, which agency or official ordered the pause, or what operational steps will follow. The two pieces that noted the pause offered no timeline, goals, or official statement about the effort, leaving the initiative's status unclear.

Reporting emphasized that the next six months will determine whether the Democratic advantage endures. With voters naming gasoline prices and the economy as top concerns, campaign messaging on those issues and the parties' ability to mobilize core and swing coalitions will shape the map heading into November.

Related Articles

With six months to go, turnout and enthusiasm will decide whether that 10-point edge turns into actual congressional seats.

This article was created with AI assistance.