US forces have lost military hardware valued at between $2.3bn and $2.8bn since the conflict with Iran began on Feb. 28. The tally, compiled by the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, counts aircraft, radar systems and other aerial assets. Losses include a $700m AWACS plane destroyed at Prince Sultan airbase and one or more THAAD radars worth up to $970m. The scale of losses narrows US detection and targeting capacity and carries a heavy replacement bill.

What was lost

The CSIS estimate is the first detailed public tabulation by a major research group of US equipment destroyed in the campaign. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser in CSIS's Defense and Security Department, carried out the calculations. He and CSIS put the range of lost aerial equipment at $2.3bn to $2.8bn.

Among the biggest single items was an AWACS-type airborne early-warning aircraft. The E-3/E-7 style plane, an airborne command centre, was struck on March 27 at Prince Sultan airbase in eastern Saudi Arabia. CSIS values that aircraft at roughly $700m. Command-and-control functions on that platform include long-range detection of aircraft and missiles and coordination of air operations.

CSIS also identified damage to at least one missile-defence radar tied to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, system. That radar feeds targeting data to other defence systems and can detect some hypersonic threats.

CSIS put the cost of the radar loss between $485m and $970m, depending on whether one or two radars were destroyed. The location of the strike was not specified in the CSIS calculation.

Other losses included aircraft and radar disabled by Iranian missile and drone strikes. CSIS says the tally doesn't include losses at US bases in the region, nor specialised gear or naval assets. The figure also omits damage to buildings and equipment that CSIS continues to examine.

Where and how the hits happened

The war began on Feb. 28. On March 26 the US secretary of defense, speaking at a televised Cabinet meeting with President Donald Trump seated beside him, praised US military performance. He said, "Never in recorded history has a nation’s military been so quickly and so effectively neutralised." The following day Iran fired missiles and drones that struck a US base in Saudi Arabia.

Several US soldiers were wounded in that attack.

Not all losses were from enemy fire. Early in March a friendly-fire incident in Kuwait led to three F-15 jets being shot down. CSIS included those aircraft in its tabulation of losses. Satellite imagery and overhead photos have helped analysts identify strikes on buildings and aircraft. But access to imagery has been restricted in some cases, complicating damage assessments.

Planet Labs, a satellite imagery provider, blocked public and media access to its images at the request of the US government starting Feb. 28, CSIS said. Iranian satellite imagery has remained available and has been used by outside analysts to assess the damage.

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How CSIS reached its numbers

CSIS used open-source information and imagery to estimate replacement values for destroyed platforms. The think tank stressed that the estimate focuses on aerial equipment and selected radar systems. Cancian said analysts could see which buildings and aircraft were struck from overhead photos, but they couldn't always tell what equipment sat inside damaged buildings.

The $2.3bn to $2.8bn range reflects uncertainty over the number of radars lost and the value assigned to some platforms. CSIS noted that the figure is an initial tabulation and that accounting for base damages and specialised naval or classified hardware would add to the total.

Immediate military impacts

Losing an AWACS-style plane and THAAD radar reduces the US military's layered sensors in the region. AWACS aircraft extend radar coverage hundreds of kilometres. They also coordinate air missions. Radars tied to THAAD provide data on incoming missiles and feed that information to other systems. The damage therefore affects detection and command links across air-defence networks.

That weakens situational awareness. It can slow the ability to detect, track and engage incoming threats. It can also raise reliance on host-nation assets and allied sensor networks. Replacing large platforms and sophisticated radars takes time. The loss of spare aircraft and systems tightens operational margins.

The immediate price tag is the CSIS range: $2.3bn to $2.8bn for aerial equipment and certain radars. Those numbers exclude base damages and other categories CSIS is still examining. Repairing or replacing heavy sensors and aircraft will carry procurement and logistics costs.

Large-ticket items like AWACS and THAAD radar modules are expensive to produce and field. Replacing them requires Congressional funding and program schedules. That means the bill could stretch across multiple budget cycles. It also competes with other defence spending priorities in existing budgets.

Insurance, spare-part shortages and higher operational tempo for remaining assets can add indirect costs. Moving replacement aircraft into theatre involves transit, maintenance crews and training. Those support costs aren't part of the CSIS headline number but will add to the total fiscal impact.

The losses arrived a day after a public declaration of US military success. That timing has political implications at home and abroad.

Domestically, equipment losses raise questions about readiness and vulnerability in forward-deployed positions. Internationally, allies and partners watch how the US adapts its posture and sustainment.

The restriction of commercial satellite imagery at the US government's request complicates external oversight. It also changes the flow of information available to analysts and foreign governments. Iranian imagery has been used by independent observers to corroborate strike effects, while Planet Labs' block has limited public verification of other hits.

CSIS makes clear its estimate doesn't capture every loss. It omits some categories, notably damage at US bases, specialised equipment and naval assets.

Cancian said measuring damage to storage buildings and to the contents of facilities remains difficult from overhead photos. Analysts therefore expect the full cost to be higher when those categories are added.

That means budget planners and Pentagon officials face incomplete public accounting for the moment. The CSIS work, however, gives a baseline figure for the most visible and costly aerial losses.

The war began on Feb. 28. CSIS estimated destroyed aerial equipment at $2.3bn to $2.8bn. A $700m AWACS-style plane was hit at Prince Sultan airbase on March 27. THAAD radar losses are valued between $485m and $970m. Three F-15s were lost to friendly fire in Kuwait in early March. Planet Labs blocked public and media satellite imagery at the US government's request starting Feb. 28.

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Planet Labs blocked public and media access to its satellite images at the US government's request from Feb. 28, limiting verification.

This article was created with AI assistance.