A 10% fertilizer shortfall could cut up to 25% of cereal output in sub-Saharan Africa and push food inflation as much as 8%. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have already slowed shipments of ammonia, urea and other inputs, leaving heavily import-dependent smallholder farmers exposed.
Strait of Hormuz strains a fragile supply chain
Global fertilizer trade depends on a handful of routes and export hubs. Shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz account for roughly one-quarter of global ammonia trade and more than a third of seaborne urea. When military or diplomatic tensions rise, perceived risk can stall shipments and push prices higher.
Previous shocks — from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine — pushed fertilizer prices to record highs and showed how concentrated supply chains quickly raise input costs for farmers in Africa.
Who stands to lose the most
Most of the continent's smallholder farmers lack the finances and storage that larger commercial operations use to secure supplies in advance. Smallholders produce nearly 70% of sub-Saharan Africa's food and typically pay higher effective prices than buyers in Europe because of freight, financing and logistics costs.
That price gap means African growers feel shortages before exporters or wealthier farmers do. The Food and Agriculture Organization has estimated a 10% fall in fertilizer availability could reduce maize, rice and wheat harvests in sub-Saharan Africa by as much as 25% and lift food inflation on the continent by up to 8%.
Economic and political repercussions
Smaller harvests and higher input costs affect more than food on the table. Food availability and prices are tied to economic stability in many countries, and governments that rely on domestic cereal production to temper inflation may face fiscal pressure as they scramble to replace lost output.
That pressure can lead to higher spending on subsidies, emergency imports or food assistance. For countries already reliant on imports for fertilizer and staple foods, those options strain budgets, reduce room for other priorities and can heighten social tensions.
What African institutions are doing
The African Development Bank Group rolled out a $1.5 billion African Emergency Food Production Facility during the 2022 supply shocks. The program has supported nearly 16 million smallholder farmers in 35 countries with climate-smart seeds and fertilizer, helping generate an estimated 46 million tonnes of food valued at about $19 billion.
International partners provided roughly $323 million in cofinancing. The facility has delivered 3.5 million metric tonnes of fertilizer to date and is moving into a second phase that shifts from emergency relief toward consolidating and scaling national systems for food sovereignty.
Practical policy steps for governments
Experts advising African governments point to two complementary sets of measures:
- Short-term cushioning: prioritize targeted distribution of available fertilizer to crops and regions where losses would be largest, and scale emergency financing to keep inputs flowing to smallholders.
- Longer-term resilience: invest in local production capacity, diversify import partners and improve logistics to lower freight and financing costs.
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The African Development Bank’s Emergency Food Production Facility has delivered 3.5 million tonnes of fertilizer and reached nearly 16 million smallholder farmers as it shifts into a second phase focused on scaling national food-production systems.
This article was created with AI assistance.
