More than 2,500 people have died in Lebanon — Gaza is now the real test. A U.S.-Iran pause since April 8 and a three-week Israel-Lebanon truce have reduced active frontlines. But the ceasefires haven't settled whether Hamas will disarm or who would govern Gaza under a proposed second-phase plan that calls for a national committee and possible international forces.

Calm on several fronts, but not across the map Since early April, a fragile pause has taken hold between Washington and Tehran. The United States and Iran have observed what officials describe as a tense ceasefire after a cycle of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel and infrastructure across the Middle East. Iran’s partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and an American blockade of Iranian ports continue to weigh on the regional picture. Separately, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend an existing ceasefire for three weeks following talks at the White House. Those talks included discussions about disarming Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group that has been fighting Israel in southern Lebanon. The fighting between Israeli forces and Hezbollah since March 2 has left more than 2,500 people dead in Lebanon and displaced over a million residents, according to local tallies. Why Gaza is next Observers inside Gaza and in the capitals tracking the region say the relative quiet on the Iran and Lebanon fronts could shift focus back to the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials have signaled they remain prepared to continue operations in Gaza, and Palestinians in the enclave worry that fewer distractions elsewhere could free Israeli military resources and attention for a renewed campaign. Decision-makers face two clear scenarios: - Israel could use the breathing space on other fronts to step up pressure in Gaza. - Regional dynamics and international constraints could limit a return to the scale of fighting seen before the last ceasefire; the outcome hinges on political bargaining as much as military optioning. Ceasefire phase two: disarmament and governance The next phase of the U.S.-backed Israel-Hamas ceasefire outlines several political steps: a mechanism to disarm militant groups in Gaza, the creation of a national committee to govern the Strip, and talks about the possible deployment of international forces to help stabilize the area. Those measures are conditioned on Hamas agreeing to disarm — a demand Western parties have pressed as a precondition for broader political arrangements. Key unresolved questions include: - How would disarmament be verified and enforced? - Which actors would sit on any national governing committee for Gaza? - Would international forces be deployed, and if so under whose mandate? Each of those questions carries policy consequences. If Hamas resists disarmament, the second phase could stall and the ceasefire could collapse. If negotiations produce a framework with credible international oversight, the Strip could see a period of reduced violence and increased aid access. Politics, leverage and bargaining Gaza’s future is being negotiated amid competing priorities. Israel wants guarantees that militant capabilities won't be rebuilt. Western governments want a mechanism that reduces the risk of renewed attacks. Regional actors — including Iran and Lebanon’s armed factions — want political influence preserved. The recent talks between Israel and Lebanon, brokered in Washington, signaled a push to decouple hostilities on multiple fronts through negotiated arrangements rather than open-ended fighting. That diplomatic push gives states leverage. Israel can press Gaza on disarmament while offering phased easing of military pressure in return. Donor states and international organizations can press for governance reforms. How those political and security questions are settled will shape humanitarian access, regional diplomacy and U.S. strategic interests.

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The three-week extension creates a narrow window for negotiators; whether Hamas agrees to disarm and whether credible international oversight is arranged will determine if the ceasefires hold and if aid can reach civilians.

This article was created with AI assistance.