Three very large crude carriers moved roughly 6 million barrels out of the Persian Gulf in recent weeks, the first sustained exits since Iran nearly closed the Strait of Hormuz. LSEG and Kpler shipping data identify the VLCCs Serifos, Cospearl Lake and He Rong Hai as the vessels involved, each capable of about 2 million barrels, and show limited, brief transits amid continued disruption. The volume is small compared with normal traffic through the strait, which analysts say handles about 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. The movements matter for refiners, Asian buyers and insurers because even small reopenings can shift freight, pricing and routing in a market already sensitive to chokepoint risk.
The core read is simple. A handful of supertankers have managed to leave a near-sealed waterway, but the exits don't yet restore normal flows. LSEG and Kpler show the Liberia-flagged VLCC Serifos and two China-flagged VLCCs, Cospearl Lake and He Rong Hai, cleared a transit point in the Strait of Hormuz during a brief window of movement. Each ship is quoted with roughly 2 million barrels of capacity, which accounts for the roughly 6 million barrels that left the Gulf in those runs.
Who moved cargo, and how
Ship-tracking and broker reports link the Serifos to a charter by Thailand’s PTT. The two China-flagged VLCCs are tied to Unipec and Sinopec commercial arrangements, according to the same shipping-data compilations. Industry reports say some ships switched off transponders during exits to avoid detection, a practice confirmed across multiple accounts. One vessel that transited in mid-April later arrived in South Korea, delivering about 1 million barrels to Daesan, a notable shipment because it was among the first crude cargos to reach that port via Hormuz since the conflict began.
Public trackers and private analysts also show a much larger number of vessels remain stuck. Multiple accounts put hundreds of ships unable to leave the Gulf, including container ships and tankers stranded at anchor while only a handful manage transits. Counts vary among trackers and successive data pulls from Kpler, LSEG and other aggregators, and some operational details, such as final discharge points for certain VLCCs, remain unclear in public data.
Where movements have occurred, companies have used a mix of tactics. ADNOC of Abu Dhabi and Saudi-linked trading activity have been involved in limited volumes getting product out. Reports describe tankers loading off Fujairah or receiving cargoes via ship-to-ship transfers before attempting an exit. At least one large transfer involved a vessel that left the Gulf, passed cargo to a second ship, and that second ship continued on to Asia, according to compiling reports.
Market and logistical impact
The U.S. Energy Information Administration frames the Strait of Hormuz as a choke point with few practical alternatives for most volumes that transit it. EIA analysis points to a 1.6 million barrels per day decline in flows through Hormuz between 2022 and 2024, driven partly by OPEC+ production cuts, Saudi overland routing to Red Sea ports, and higher regional refinery demand.
First-quarter 2025 flows remained relatively flat compared with 2024, the EIA says, suggesting the recent exits didn't yet reverse the broader decline.
Disruptions at the strait can raise shipping costs and nudge global benchmark prices. The EIA cites a mid-2024 regional tension episode when Brent crude rose from $69 to $74 per barrel. Industry reporting suggests companies are paying a premium to move cargo, and one tracker reported war-risk insurance premiums rising to about 16 times normal while estimating daily economic costs above $4 billion during peak disruption. Those specific metrics appear only in that tracker’s account and aren't confirmed elsewhere.
Private and public trackers are closely watching near-real-time updates on vessel status. Some show throughput at under 2 percent of normal daily deadweight tonnage during brief reopenings, while others offer higher counts of successful transits. That divergence reflects real operational uncertainty, and it keeps freight schedulers, refiners and traders on edge. The narrow window that allowed the three VLCCs to exit is the kind of opening that large trading houses and state producers can exploit, but only if they can marshal insurance, suitable charters and port arrangements.
Supply-chain improvisation is visible. Ship-to-ship transfers, temporary staging outside the Persian Gulf, and selective use of Gulf-linked trading arms have become routine workarounds.
Still, the volume that got out in recent weeks remains tiny compared with daily demand through Hormuz. The EIA’s 20 million barrels per day baseline from 2024 starkly frames the gap between a few supertankers moving and a return to normal throughput.
My read is that these exits signal willingness among large producers and traders to test risky routes when the commercial upside is clear, but not that shipping has resumed at scale. The mechanics are now public: fixtures by state-linked sellers, ship-to-ship transfers, and tactical transponder behavior. Those will inform how markets price risk until a sustained, verifiable reopening is documented by multiple independent trackers.
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Trackers and industry reports say a provisional ADNOC fixture is scheduled to load a supertanker for delivery to Asia in the weeks ahead, a shipment that could produce another high-profile exit attempt and offer clearer evidence on whether limited reopenings are episodic or sustainable.
This article was created with AI assistance.
