West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-2022, rattling financial markets and pulling Bitcoin back from recent gains. The rise in oil prices, fueled by ongoing conflict in the Middle East, is sending shockwaves through crypto and equities alike.
Oil Prices Skyrocket on Geopolitical Risks
WTI crude settled at $102.88 per barrel Monday, marking a 3.25% jump and the first close above the century mark since July 2022. Brent crude, the global benchmark, followed suit, closing at $112.78—a 0.19% rise that pushes its monthly gain to a staggering 55%. That surge is the biggest monthly jump since the contract's debut in 1988.
These price spikes come as the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran intensifies in its fifth week. President Donald Trump issued stern warnings against Iran, threatening to destroy oil wells and infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.
Trump's remarks evoke memories of the U.S. Intervention in Venezuela’s oil sector, hinting at a similar approach toward Iranian oil assets. The heightened tensions have escalated risks to energy infrastructure, sending prices soaring and stoking fears of a prolonged supply crunch.
Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Feel the Pressure
Bitcoin briefly rallied above $70,000 earlier in March when oil prices had retreated, fueled by international efforts to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz. But as oil surged anew, Bitcoin retreated, slipping back below $67,000 by Monday afternoon. The largest cryptocurrency ended the day around $66,500, erasing most of its recent gains.
Other major cryptocurrencies—ether, XRP, solana—also lagged behind Bitcoin, showing smaller gains or losses as investors turned cautious amid rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
Crypto prices often move with risk appetite, which tends to shift when oil prices jump. When energy prices rise sharply, inflation concerns intensify, prompting investors to pull back from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Wall Street’s Unease and Fed’s Response
U.S. Stocks echoed crypto’s nervousness. Despite early gains Monday, the Nasdaq closed down 0.75%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%. A key technical signal added to the jitters: the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 2025, suggesting a shift toward bearish momentum.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell addressed the situation in a speech at Harvard, emphasizing the Fed’s current stance of looking beyond short-term oil shocks. He noted inflation expectations remain "well anchored," even as oil prices climb.
His comments helped ease bond market fears, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping nine basis points to 4.35% and the 2-year yield sliding eight basis points to 3.83%. The chance of further Fed rate hikes this year plummeted to 5% from 25% last week, according to CME FedWatch data.
Still, Powell cautioned the central bank might have to react if oil-related economic effects worsen, saying, "We’re not really facing it yet because we don’t know what the economic effects will be."
Global Efforts and Market Uncertainty
Earlier in the month, a coalition of major economies, including the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan, announced plans to stabilize energy supplies by ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Those moves helped push oil prices down for a bit and gave crypto a short-lived lift.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted the U.S. Might remove sanctions on Iranian oil tankers and release crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, aiming to ease supply constraints. Yet, despite these moves, the risk of escalating conflict keeps oil prices elevated and markets on edge.
Some analysts point to oil’s technical price support near $92 as a key level. If that holds, prices could continue climbing. Mott Capital Management noted that options market positioning suggests further gains may be on the horizon.
What’s really unclear is how long-lasting energy price shocks will change how investors feel about risk across markets. How oil, stocks, and crypto interact will probably drive market moves in the coming weeks.
With crude prices topping $100 amid geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin and other markets are being put to the test. The next moves in oil and the Fed’s response could set the tone for risk assets in a volatile spring.
