Keiko Fujimori led first-round counts with roughly 16.8% of valid votes, and Rafael López Aliaga trailed in the low-to-mid teens, setting up a likely June 7 runoff that has heightened market concern. The April 12 vote was chaotic and stretched into the following days as officials continued counting amid delivery failures and reopened polling places. Peru’s economy continued to show momentum in 2024 and 2025, but analysts and market participants cited the political uncertainty as a central issue for investors tied to the country’s commodity exports. The runoff on June 7 will be the next decisive date for political and market watchers.

Official tallies reported in the days after April 12 put Keiko Fujimori at about 16.8% of valid votes with roughly 75-77% counted, while Rafael López Aliaga stood between about 12.7% and 12.8% in those partial results. Exit polls and pre-blackout surveys varied, placing Fujimori as high as roughly 18.5% in valid-vote polling and López Aliaga in the 13% to 15% range, leaving room for shifts as large numbers of voters remained undecided before the electoral blackout.

Chaotic first round

The April 12 election was marked by logistical failures that forced authorities to extend voting into Monday in some districts and to reopen polling stations. Officials said more than 52,000 Lima residents were allowed to vote under the extension. In a separate report, the national electoral body ONPE said ballot delivery problems had prevented about 63,000 people from voting. The delivery and opening failures prolonged counting for multiple days after polls closed, and authorities arrested at least one election official tied to the disruptions.

Voters faced an unusually crowded ballot. Thirty-five candidates contested the presidency, and with none approaching the 50% threshold, the two top vote-getters will advance to a runoff scheduled for June 7. Polling before the blackout showed between about 36% and 40% of voters as undecided in many surveys, a pool that could still reshape the race between now and the runoff.

Market signals and limits

Market attention has focused on how political uncertainty might affect investment linked to Peru’s commodity exports. Several reports noted that Peru’s underlying economy continued to show momentum despite the turbulence, recording just over 3% growth in both 2024 and 2025. That growth is supported by Peru’s role as a major copper producer and by structural export projects such as the Chancay port, which analysts say underpin medium-term export capacity.

Mastheads

Analysts also pointed to the ideological tilt of the two leading contenders. Coverage noted that both Fujimori and López Aliaga are right-of-center and broadly supportive of mining, a factor market participants cited as limiting downside risk for resource-sector investors regardless of the runoff outcome.

That assessment is the clearest investor-relevant signal in the reporting about how the vote could affect markets.

Institutional continuity at Peru’s central bank emerged as another stabilizing point for investors. Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that Peru has had a single central bank president, Julio Velarde, since the mid-2000s. Freeman said Velarde’s long tenure has given investors confidence in monetary policy continuity even as politics roils the electoral calendar.

At the same time, the reporting doesn't provide hard measures of business confidence such as PMI readings, corporate investment surveys, or bond-flow figures that would quantify a private-sector confidence swing. The phrase that "business confidence is sinking" isn't directly supported by metrics in the available coverage. The closest direct investor-relevant assertion is that the race’s mining-friendly tilt gives resource investors relative reassurance.

Still, market reactions and corporate behavior can hinge on perception as much as on hard numbers. The prolonged counting, the reopening of polling stations, and the reported tens of thousands affected by ballot delivery problems have added to market nervousness, especially among firms and funds with exposure to copper and other extractive sectors.

Investors will weigh the political signals alongside economic trends. The combination of steady growth, large export projects such as Chancay, and central bank continuity are factors that some market analysts said could limit disruption to investment flows. But the size of the undecided voter pool and the operational failures on voting day leave the political picture unsettled until the runoff on June 7.

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The next concrete signpost is the June 7 runoff; its outcome should clarify near-term risks for Peru’s commodity-linked investors.

This article was created with AI assistance.