Just hours before President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, a cluster of newly created accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket placed high-stakes bets on the deal’s outcome. Despite escalating rhetoric suggesting no breakthrough was near, these accounts secured hundreds of thousands in profits.

Surprising Bets Amid Escalating Tensions

On April 7, as tensions between the US and Iran hit a fever pitch, President Trump intensified his warnings on social media, threatening catastrophic consequences if Iran didn't comply with his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by an 8 p.m. ET deadline. Early that day, Trump proclaimed that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran failed to meet his demands.

Look, against this backdrop of heightened hostility and uncertainty, at least 50 newly created accounts on Polymarket—a decentralized prediction market platform—placed substantial bets affirming that a ceasefire would be reached. These wagers came hours before Trump confirmed the ceasefire in a Truth Social post around 6:30 p.m. ET, catching many observers off guard.

This cluster of bets stood out not only because of their timing but also because these were the first bets placed by those accounts. Analysis of Polymarket’s public blockchain data, conducted via the crypto analytics tool Dune, shows these accounts were newly minted wallets, some created mere hours or even minutes before placing their high-value bets.

One wallet, created around 10 a.m. ET on the day of the ceasefire announcement, placed about $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents per share. This user later cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another account, registered just a day earlier on April 6, profited $125,500 on the same event. A third wallet, established only 12 minutes before Trump’s social media post, placed $31,908 in bets at a higher average price of 33.7 cents and earned an estimated $48,500.

Mechanics of the Market and Possible Motivations

Polymarket operates on a market price system where the cost of each bet reflects the perceived probability of an event occurring, ranging from zero to one dollar per share. The lower a share’s price, the less likely traders believe the event will happen.

In this case, the ceasefire bets were priced low early in the day, indicating skepticism among market participants given the hostile rhetoric.

The sudden influx of large “Yes” bets from new accounts suggests access to information or a calculated gamble that Trump would soften his stance. Critics have noted that during his second term, Trump often made aggressive threats but eventually backed down—a pattern nicknamed "Trump Always Chickens Out" or TACO. These bettors might have banked on that history, expecting the president to retreat from his hardline position despite public warnings.

Another factor possibly influencing the higher-priced bets placed closer to the announcement was diplomatic activity. Reports indicated that Pakistan’s government was lobbying Trump to extend his 8 p.m. Deadline by two weeks, which could have shifted market perception and increased the price of betting on a ceasefire.

Controversies and Uncertainty in Payouts

While some accounts have already realized significant profits, not all wagers have been settled. Polymarket has classified the Iran-US ceasefire contract as "disputed," citing ongoing Iranian restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and continued missile activity in the region. This dispute may delay payouts by up to 48 hours as the platform reviews the situation to determine if the ceasefire conditions have been fully met.

Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, which allow a single user to create multiple accounts. This technical setup complicates efforts to identify whether these new wallets represent genuinely new users or existing players employing multiple accounts to place strategic bets. Public blockchain data can't reveal user identities, and Polymarket hasn't responded to requests for comment regarding the suspicious timing and patterns of these bets.

Implications for Prediction Markets and Political Events

This episode isn't the first time Polymarket has seen a surge of well-timed bets from newly created accounts ahead of major geopolitical events. Similar patterns emerged before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, where clusters of new accounts placed large wagers and secured big profits.

Some policymakers and regulators worry that prediction markets like Polymarket might enable insider trading or allow profits from sensitive political events, raising ethical questions. The platform’s partial funding by Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., adds another layer of scrutiny given the political sensitivity of the bets.

This development highlights how digital prediction markets are increasingly linked to political discussions and international relations in the US. The ability of unknown actors to place high-stakes bets based on real-time geopolitical information makes people wonder about market fairness and the potential for manipulation.

Prediction markets can shape how people see risk and stability, especially in volatile areas like the Middle East. Rapid shifts in market sentiment can ripple through financial markets, affecting everything from oil prices to currency valuations. The Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for global oil shipments, has extra weight for the energy sector and the US economy. Uncertainty about its security can cause price spikes and market volatility.

This episode shows how unpredictable US-Iran relations can be, with public statements sometimes hiding secret talks. The ceasefire announcement came as a surprise to many, given the preceding threats and military activity. The bets placed on Polymarket suggest some actors were privy to or confident about a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough.

With the Iran-US ceasefire contract still marked disputed and payouts pending, the true winners of these well-timed bets might not be fully clear for days. What remains certain is that prediction markets like Polymarket are carving a new space where finance, politics, and information collide—raising fresh questions about transparency and influence in global affairs.