Jet fuel stocks in Europe could run dry within weeks. That threat is already shaping fares, schedules and fees.

Why supplies are tight

Global jet fuel flows depend on crude oil getting refined and shipped through a handful of narrow routes. The Strait of Hormuz is one of those routes. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, told the Associated Press that Europe has "maybe six weeks" of jet fuel left if shipments through the strait don't resume.

Refineries turn crude into jet fuel, gasoline and diesel. When fighting around Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted shipments, refined-product flows snarled. Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, said the strait normally handles roughly 40% of Europe's jet fuel imports and that no jet fuel has passed through since the war began.

Inventory levels vary by country and by airline. The IEA reported this week that some European nations now have less than 20 days of coverage. Others hold several months' worth. Airlines keep fuel stored at airports, but storage and buying power differ widely across carriers. Jacques Rousseau, managing director at Clearview Energy Partners, said larger carriers usually have more cash and better access to high-priced supplies.

Prices have jumped

Higher risk on the shipping lanes pushed prices roughly twofold in some markets since the conflict began. The International Air Transport Association's global jet fuel average climbed to about $209 a barrel last week, up from roughly $99 at the end of February, according to reporting by AP.

In the United States, spot values moved sharply as well: one market gauge tracked in early April showed a rise from about $2.50 a gallon at the end of February to nearly $4.88 a gallon by April 2.

Volatility makes planning hard. Shye Gilad, a former airline captain and instructor at Georgetown University, said rapid moves up and down make airlines cautious. When prices spike then dip, carriers often wait weeks or months before changing fares. That delay means passengers can face higher costs long after oil briefly falls.

How airlines are reacting

Airlines have three basic tools: raise prices, cut capacity, or absorb costs and take smaller profits. Many carriers are already doing the first two. Delta Air Lines increased checked-baggage fees and other add-ons this quarter. United Airlines warned staff in a memo that sustained higher jet fuel could add about $11 billion in annual costs. Delta Chief Executive Ed Bastian told reporters the carrier expects about $2 billion in extra operating expenses in the second quarter alone.

Budget carriers tend to be the most vulnerable. They run thin margins and rely on high utilization to make money. Several low-cost European airlines are reportedly weighing route cuts or temporary suspensions if fuel deliveries don't stabilize. Ryanair said its fuel suppliers could guarantee supplies only into mid-May in a recent statement to a trade publication; if the strait stayed closed into late spring, the carrier said risks to some airports couldn't be ruled out.

Airlines also use hedging to lock in prices, but hedges take time and can leave carriers exposed when markets move suddenly. Larger airlines typically hedge more and have deeper balance sheets to buy fuel at market peaks. Smaller airlines and independent operators may face hard choices first.

What travelers will see

Ticket prices are already reflecting higher fuel costs in several ways. Carriers embed higher operating costs into base fares, add surcharges, or raise fees for baggage and seat selection. Some airlines have begun publishing explicit fuel surcharges on international routes; others fold the cost into higher ticket prices.

Passengers should expect fewer nonstop options on some routes. When fuel is scarce or very expensive at a particular airport, carriers can reroute planes, reduce frequencies, or remove service altogether. That means longer connections for many travelers and fewer budget choices for price-sensitive customers.

Cancellations and rebooking headaches are likely to rise if shortages worsen. Airlines will prioritize routes they can serve profitably. That may favor business-heavy corridors and large hubs where airlines can amortize the higher fuel cost across more seats and cargo revenue.

Broader financial stakes

The airline industry already runs on slim margins. United's estimate of an $11 billion hit illustrates the scale: that figure exceeds the company's best-ever annual profit. Analysts say the sector could see a material reordering of market share if higher input costs persist. Carriers with stronger balance sheets and more diversified networks will likely outlast weaker competitors.

Investors watching airline earnings will want to see how quickly carriers can pass costs through to customers and how much demand erodes in response. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, told delegates at an industry symposium that even if the strait reopens, it will take months to restore refining and shipping patterns and to refill inventories. That lag means costs could stay elevated well into the summer travel season.

Governments and regulators also face choices. They can ease restrictions on fuel transfers, authorize additional storage, or offer temporary relief measures to stabilize air service. So far, officials have moved cautiously and focused on monitoring flows and prices.

Short term versus long term

Soon, travelers should expect higher fares, more fees and patchier schedules. In the medium term, aircraft utilization patterns may change as carriers redeploy planes to routes with reliable fuel. Airlines might accelerate plans to improve fuel efficiency through newer aircraft and weight-saving measures, but those moves take years to implement.

Longer term, the disruption could nudge the industry toward more regional supply diversification and greater emphasis on alternative fuels. Some carriers already invest in sustainable aviation fuel and efficiency upgrades. Those efforts could gain priority if physical fuel supply proves intermittently fragile.

For now, the immediate pressure point is inventory on hand and whether shipments through key chokepoints resume. Fatih Birol's warning of "maybe six weeks" of European jet fuel supply has put a hard deadline in the market's mind. Airlines, travelers and markets are pricing around that countdown.

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"Maybe six weeks," said Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency.