IEA Says Half of Closed Gulf Oil Fields Could Restart Within Weeks

The IEA reports that half of the closed Gulf oil fields could resume production within weeks, but ongoing damage may delay full recovery and impact global

Half of closed Gulf oil fields could restart in weeks, the IEA says. The agency warned, though, that damage to dozens of facilities means some repairs will take much longer.

Restart timelines depend on how fields were shut

Look, not every shut well is the same. Some operators kept fields flowing at reduced rates even as fighting around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shipping and hit energy sites. Those fields can often be brought back to full output quickly.

Aditya Saraswat, director of research for the Middle East and North Africa at Rystad Energy, said a small field that was halted can often be restored to full production in two to three weeks, while larger fields may need four to five weeks to come back online. He warned operators can cause extra damage by rushing the restart because pressure has to be rebuilt carefully through the reservoir and trunk lines.

That technical reality helps explain why some Gulf producers expect rapid returns while others are more cautious. Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, told reporters the company expects to get curtailed fields back up "within days" if conditions allow. But engineers and analysts say that answer only fits fields kept at minimal flow, not those that were fully depressurized or physically damaged.

Damage complicates recovery after weeks of fighting

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said more than 40 energy assets across nine countries have been "severely or very severely" damaged by the conflict.

That damage, he warned, could prolong interruptions to global oil and gas supply chains once active combat ends.

Thing is, damage to processing plants, pipelines and loading terminals matters as much as wells. Repairing a liquefied natural gas plant or a refinery can take months to years depending on the scale of the strike and the availability of parts, specialized crews and safe access. The strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex — the world's largest export plant — were cited as an example of how infrastructure hits raise longer-term risks for the market.

Jim Krane, a fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, said, "You can't just push the pause button when oil flows are inconvenient." He stressed that shutting and restarting such linked systems can produce cascading technical problems that slow a full recovery.

How the IEA and EIA see the shock playing out

The International Energy Agency's assessment that half of shut fields could resume in weeks sits alongside a darker picture from U.S. Government forecasters. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since Feb. 28 has cut available global supply and raised price volatility.

The EIA noted Brent crude averaged $103 per barrel in March — roughly $32 above February's average — and daily Brent briefly neared $128 on April 2. The agency said it had initially assumed a one-month disruption and roughly 5.5 million barrels per day of shut-in production would peak in March. That assumption has been pushed aside as the conflict and chokepoint closures have persisted.

Sure, the EIA now projects Brent could average $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, then ease to about $88 per barrel by the fourth quarter if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes but doesn't return to pre-conflict levels until late 2026. The agency also warned that inventories have drawn down sharply and that attacks on regional energy infrastructure add an ongoing premium to prices.

What this means for the United States

Higher international oil prices feed into U.S. Energy markets. The EIA's numbers show the shock has already tightened global supply and pushed benchmarks higher, which typically puts upward pressure on gasoline and diesel prices at U.S. Pumps.

U.S. Consumers and businesses are likely to feel that squeeze. Higher fuel costs can raise transportation and shipping expenses and add to consumer inflation, complicating the job of policymakers trying to balance growth and price stability. The EIA's projection of elevated prices through much of 2026 suggests the economic effects could linger.

Politically, the disruption increases pressure on Washington to use diplomatic and economic tools. The U.S. Has strategic interests in ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and policymakers in both parties have flagged the risks that sustained energy disruptions pose to allies and domestic markets. The EIA's forecast that the market will carry a lasting risk premium gives extra urgency to diplomatic efforts to reduce the chance of further attacks.

Markets, inventories and the road back

Global oil markets were building inventories before the conflict. The EIA had anticipated oversupply from non-OPEC producers and higher production targets from OPEC+, which would have kept prices subdued. The fighting upended that expectation by forcing regional producers to take supply off the market and by disrupting tanker routes.

That combination — lower flows through a critical chokepoint and damage to facilities — created the sharp inventory draws the EIA described. Even after wells and some facilities are repaired, the report says, quirks in tanker routing and a backlog of freight and trade flows mean it will take time for trade to normalize. So restarts of fields won't immediately erase the price effects.

Analysts also caution there's many possible outcomes. If fighting abates quickly and damage is limited to facilities that operators can repair fast, the market could calm within weeks to months. If attacks continue or if key processing hubs suffer deep structural damage, recovery could stretch into years — especially for complex LNG plants or major refinery units that require specialized rebuilds.

Strategic choices for producers and buyers

Producers face trade-offs: keep fields running at low rates to preserve reservoir pressure and ensure a faster ramp-up later, or shut systems fully to avoid on-site risks and liability. Operators who declare force majeure and shut systems fully may be safe from immediate danger, but the EIA and industry engineers point out the restart costs and time can rise sharply when reservoirs and trunk lines are depressurized.

Buyers and consuming countries must decide how long to tolerate higher prices and whether to dip into strategic reserves or tap allies' stocks to ease the tightness. The EIA said inventories have already fallen — but it didn't lay out policy moves. Those choices are political as well as technical.

Fatih Birol's warning about dozens of badly damaged assets offers a blunt reminder: some parts of the energy network don't bounce back quickly. The mix of wells that can restart fast and facilities that can't will shape the pace of recovery and the cost to consumers.

Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, said more than 40 energy assets across nine countries have been "severely or very severely" damaged.